(no subject)

[anthonybaxter]

There's times where I really really get annoyed at the media. For instance this week we've been hearing about the Coalition's big comeback. Huge comeback. Johnny's kicking arse and taking names, apparently.

Part of that is today's newspoll quarterly survey. It shows a national TPP vote of 56.5-43.5 ALP lead. That's a drop of a couple of percent since the last one in the ALP vote. Gosh. So we now have a brutal brutal nightmare for the Coalition, instead of an outright slaughter. The last numbers (which showed something around 58-59% to the ALP) were pretty much too-good-to-be-true in any case.

If you plug either the national number or the individual state numbers into Antony Green's spiffy new election calculator you get the ALP winning either 101 or 104 seats to the Coalition's 47 or 44. Assuming uniform swings (which is unrealistic, yes, but we work with what we have) that's 44 seats changing hands. You see seats like Kooyong going to the ALP for the first time ever. You also see Costello, Howard, Turnbull, Danna Vale, Mal Brough, Christopher Pyne, Kevin Andrews and a number of other lesser ministers losing their seats. The liberal leadership race in this result would be Nelson vs Downer. No, really. It would.

And this is the good news, according to the government gazette. This is before yesterday's smearing, dirt-unit and calling an Iraq war vet a nazi stories show up in the polls.

Comments

[aeduna.livejournal.com]

the Coalition has clawed back support in the key state of Queensland

.... so, the Nationals have picked up a bit then, in other words.

[damien-wise.livejournal.com]

That poll was taken over the last quarter. It's using some very out of date data and, in a way, acknowledges that things were better for the libs back then than they are now. This was pointed-out by the ABC's psephologist, Antony Green, on Lateline a few nights ago. I have to laugh at any false hope that the Libs are getting from reading that old data -- the slide is only worsening. It would be interesting to see a poll where all the results were collected in the last week or two.
I'd be happy with umm, say an 8% swing? Not at all unrealistic given the dire position the Libs are in...and it would man J.Ho is trounced out of his own seat by Maxine McKew with a buffer of 4%. :)

[anthonybaxter.livejournal.com]

Sure, but it's aggregated enough data that we can get meaningful numbers at a smaller level. Also, the headline number is very close to this week's Morgan and Newspoll headline numbers.

The libs aren't particularly sliding, nor are they recovering. The ALP TPP number's been consistently around 55-56% all year, maybe bouncing a point or two up and down.

[laptop006.livejournal.com]

You know the threat of Downer being leader is almost enough to vote for Johnny.