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Sep. 21st, 2007 02:18 pmThere's times where I really really get annoyed at the media. For instance this week we've been hearing about the Coalition's big comeback. Huge comeback. Johnny's kicking arse and taking names, apparently.
Part of that is today's newspoll quarterly survey. It shows a national TPP vote of 56.5-43.5 ALP lead. That's a drop of a couple of percent since the last one in the ALP vote. Gosh. So we now have a brutal brutal nightmare for the Coalition, instead of an outright slaughter. The last numbers (which showed something around 58-59% to the ALP) were pretty much too-good-to-be-true in any case.
If you plug either the national number or the individual state numbers into Antony Green's spiffy new election calculator you get the ALP winning either 101 or 104 seats to the Coalition's 47 or 44. Assuming uniform swings (which is unrealistic, yes, but we work with what we have) that's 44 seats changing hands. You see seats like Kooyong going to the ALP for the first time ever. You also see Costello, Howard, Turnbull, Danna Vale, Mal Brough, Christopher Pyne, Kevin Andrews and a number of other lesser ministers losing their seats. The liberal leadership race in this result would be Nelson vs Downer. No, really. It would.
And this is the good news, according to the government gazette. This is before yesterday's smearing, dirt-unit and calling an Iraq war vet a nazi stories show up in the polls.
Part of that is today's newspoll quarterly survey. It shows a national TPP vote of 56.5-43.5 ALP lead. That's a drop of a couple of percent since the last one in the ALP vote. Gosh. So we now have a brutal brutal nightmare for the Coalition, instead of an outright slaughter. The last numbers (which showed something around 58-59% to the ALP) were pretty much too-good-to-be-true in any case.
If you plug either the national number or the individual state numbers into Antony Green's spiffy new election calculator you get the ALP winning either 101 or 104 seats to the Coalition's 47 or 44. Assuming uniform swings (which is unrealistic, yes, but we work with what we have) that's 44 seats changing hands. You see seats like Kooyong going to the ALP for the first time ever. You also see Costello, Howard, Turnbull, Danna Vale, Mal Brough, Christopher Pyne, Kevin Andrews and a number of other lesser ministers losing their seats. The liberal leadership race in this result would be Nelson vs Downer. No, really. It would.
And this is the good news, according to the government gazette. This is before yesterday's smearing, dirt-unit and calling an Iraq war vet a nazi stories show up in the polls.
