Ok, so at the moment, the Democrats have the US House of Representatives, and look likely to have the Senate (albeit 51-49 - the slimmest of margins). I've seen a number of "Woo! Impeachment!" messages from people since the election, so I figure it's worth giving a little post explaining some things.
First off, as it stands today, impeachment Will Not Happen. There needs to be an absolute smoking gun for this, and like it or not, there isn't one. The way impeachment works is that the House has to draw up and pass motions for impeachment. Once thats done (and that would be a massive political shitfight), it moves to the Senate for judgement. Once there, you need 2/3 of the Senators to vote in favour. That is just not possible. Not now, and quite probably, not during the lifetime of the Bush presidency. The Republicans are far, far too wedded to their president to even consider anything else.
The other thing to consider is that short of something
incredibly damning being brought to light, impeachment would be an utter disaster for Democrats. It would make them look like hacks, like sleazy politicians,.... well, like Republicans, to put it simply. The Clinton impeachment led to considerable midterm election losses for the Republicans in 1998. The Dems know this, and know it's not smart.
What they
will do is hold hearings, and investigate. Now that they're in charge of the House, they get to call hearings and issue subpoenas for information. This will lead to all sorts of rocks being turned over. Expect the White House to fight any and all requests for information under the broadest of "Executive Privilege" claims they can make. Legal eagle Orin Kerr
writes at the right-wing/libertarian Volokh Conspiracy:
I would guess, on the whole, that this isn't good news for proponents of strong executive power. I think it's fair to say that the Executive Branch's credibility on executive power claims is relatively low these days among the folks with Article III appointments. For better or worse, this isn't the most friendly judicial environment in which to push a strong Article II. Of course, a single retirement might alter the balance at the Supreme Court; the Hamdan Five might become four. However, the confirmation process to fill an open seat would need to go through the new Senate first.
(Article III refers to Federal judges, and Article II is the White House (aka the Executive Branch). These are the sections of the constitution describing these parts of the US government. "Hamdan Five" refers to the 5 US Supreme Court justices who rejected the White House's extreme claims of executive privilege in the recent Guantanamo case)
The list of things that are likely to be examined is
huge.
The other thing the Dem house (and Senate, if Montana and Virginia stick to the existing razor thin margins for the Democratic candidates) is pass legislation, and reverse unpleasant right-wing legislation. Sure, President Bush can veto any bills - this veto can be overridden with a 2/3 majority vote. While 2/3 against him might seem unlikely, there's a whole pile of very popular things that can be passed-- Bush could veto them, but it would put an incredible amount of pressure on Republicans to oppose him. Things like a minimum wage, reappointing the inspector general for oversight of corruption in Iraq, passing much needed ethics reform, the incredible abuse and suppression of science and the like. These didn't come up in the last couple of years because the Republican leadership in both houses refused to let them be brought to a vote. If this sort of thing came to a vote, they'd have to go on record as opposing it. That's not good politics.
Finally, a Democratic Senate can block Bush's more insane choices for appointment to the bench. Federal judges have lifetime tenure (this is why both Bush and Howard have been appointing younger rightwing judges). In Bush's case, he's also been ramming through some insane rightwingers. No more of that for you, bucko.
So in summary: No impeachment. Sorry if you had your heart set on it. On the other hand, it would be a fucking circus, and the US (and the rest of the world) deserve actual government for a while.
I think I covered all the bits here. If something's unclear, post a comment and I'll try to clarify it.
No, I don't have any special knowledge about US politics - I've just read far far too much about it in my lifetime. (And Australian politics, but at the moment, that's less relevant)
And yes, it's far too late at night to be awake. Blame sinus pain.
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